Mentor, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS61 KCLE 152048
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
448 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Northern Plains will lift a warm front
northeast across the region into tonight. Another low pressure
system will cross the Upper Great Lakes Friday night, dragging a
cold front east across the area on Saturday. High pressure
will build south across the area Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For this afternoon, it does appear that we have a window of
time with 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE with continued theta-e
advection. Not much of a focus to kick off convection, but one
shower has recently developed near Toledo. Otherwise we will be
waiting for later tonight for the potential of strong to severe
thunderstorms to arrive in the area.

Low pressure is located over eastern North Dakota with an
occluded front extending southeast towards Lake Michigan.
Thunderstorms have been filling in along this boundary and will
continue to do so tonight as a negatively tilted upper level
trough lifts into the Upper Great Lakes. A strongly unstable
environment has developed upstream with 2500-3500 J/kg of ML
CAPE across Indiana and Illinois. A capping inversion is likely
in place for now but 12Z high resolution models are pretty
aggressive with convection continuing to expand in coverage as
it pushes east of Lake Michigan this evening into Southwest
Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. It is possible that
somewhat discrete cells merge into an MCS as the evening
progresses and approaches the Toledo area towards 11 PM. Models
show some spread overnight with how this system evolves tracking
into northern Ohio with some models keeping activity focused
closer to Lake Erie and Cleveland with other models showing
activity moving southeast along the instability gradient towards
Mansfield and Canton. Even by midnight we could have 1000-2000
J/kg of surface based CAPE still in place extending from Toledo
southeast towards Canton. Severe weather is a possibility with
either option. There is a low end chance the thunderstorms pass
north of Lake Erie but with northwesterly flow in the mid-levels
of the atmosphere, preference is for convection to move east or
southeast ahead of the building ridge aloft. The Storm
Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms along the I-75 corridor with the Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms extending all the way into NW Pennsylvania.
The primary severe weather hazards are both wind gusts to 70
mph and large hail. Heavy rain is also a concern, especially if
training of thunderstorms occurs. Most areas will see between
half inch to an inch of rain although a swath of 1-2 inches is
possible where the bulk of the thunderstorms track. In addition
there is a threat of tornadoes tonight. Low level flow will be
backed both ahead of the trough and also near Lake Erie. These
could be either with discrete cells or along some type of line
of storms. The southwesterly flow ahead of the storms will help
to maintain surface based instability or a shallow near surface
inversion that could be overcome well into the overnight hours.

Activity will exit to the east by morning with clouds expected
to clear as we reside beneath an expansive dry slot aloft.
Southerly flow will allow for good recovery of the airmass with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s again. Dewpoints mix
out into the low 50s but start to creep back up towards 60
degrees by evening. The broad upper level low over the Upper
Midwest rotates northeast towards the Great Lakes during the
evening as a 75 knot jet at 500mb moves around the south side of
the upper low. Thunderstorms are likely to develop across
southern Illinois and Indiana and move east through the Ohio
Valley with a high wind threat as indicated by the moderate risk
issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Farther north, ML CAPE
values creep up to 1000-1500 J/kg in NW Ohio. Thunderstorms
moving into northern Indiana and NW Ohio are more likely to be
scattered in nature with less deep layer moisture to work with.
Shear will be strong with 40-50 knots after 8 PM and there will
be another risk of severe thunderstorms Friday evening. THis
threat appears more conditional based on how thunderstorms
evolve both tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A nearly vertically-stacked low at the surface and aloft is expected
to move generally E`ward from the northern Great Lakes to southern
QC between daybreak Saturday and daybreak Sunday. This low track
should allow the trailing surface cold front to sweep E`ward through
our CWA late Saturday morning through the afternoon. Behind the
nearly vertically-stacked low, a shortwave ridge aloft builds
gradually from the north-central United States as net surface
troughing lingers over Lake Erie and vicinity, including our CWA.
Ahead of the cold front, low-level WAA and peeks of sunshine should
allow Saturday`s daytime highs to reach the mid 60`s to mid 70`s.
Strengthening low-level CAA behind the cold front will allow
temperatures to tumble and contribute to overnight lows reaching the
upper 40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak Sunday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should occur along and ahead of the cold front, amidst
weak to moderate boundary layer instability and strong deep-layer
bulk shear in the warm/relatively-moist sector. This thermodynamic
and kinematic environment may support strong to severe
thunderstorms, especially in NE OH and NW PA, where greater diurnal
heating/boundary layer destabilization should occur prior to the
cold front passage. Any lingering rain showers associated with
forcing for ascent amidst sufficient moisture along the upper-
reaches of the cold front should exit generally E`ward by sunset
Saturday evening. However, the seeder-feeder process amidst a
sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column may allow
periodic and isolated lake-enhanced rain showers to stream generally
ESE`ward over/downwind of ~13C (i.e. ~55F) Lake Erie and impact far-
NE OH and NW PA Saturday evening into the first couple predawn hours
of Sunday morning. Otherwise, fair weather is expected as dry air
advection at the surface and aloft, and stabilizing subsidence
accompanying the shortwave ridge aloft, take-hold in our CWA.

Current odds favor fair weather this Sunday through Sunday night as
stabilizing subsidence accompanies the aforementioned ridge at the
surface and aloft, which should continue to build from the north-
central United States and eventually the western Great Lakes.
Despite intervals of sunshine, continued synoptic-scale low-level
CAA will contribute to highs reaching the upper 50`s to lower 60`s
in NW PA and mainly the lower 60`s to near 70F in northern OH during
the late afternoon on Sunday. Additional pockets of clear sky and
continued low-level CAA should allow overnight lows to reach the
lower to upper 40`s in NW PA and the mid 40`s to lower 50`s in
northern OH around daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Monday, fair weather should persist in our CWA as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft continues to build
from the western Great Lakes and stabilizing subsidence continues to
impact northern OH and NW PA. Afternoon highs should reach the upper
50`s to near 70F amidst intervals of sunshine and continued low-
level CAA on the synoptic scale.

The potential for periodic rain should increase gradually and
generally from west to east overnight Monday night through daybreak
Wednesday as the ridge axis aloft drifts from the western Great
Lakes to the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley, a low aloft
wobbles E`ward across the northern Great Plains toward the Upper MS
Valley while becoming vertically-stacked with its attendant surface
low, and the surface ridge exits E`ward as a surface trough enters
our CWA from the northern and central Great Plains. This weather
pattern evolution at the surface and aloft should allow a warm
conveyor belt to undergo moist isentropic ascent aloft and exhibit
frontogenetical convergence, allowing for the aforementioned
increase in rain potential. Our region should remain within the
relatively-cold sector at the surface. Lows should reach mainly the
40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak on Tuesday and Wednesday,
respectively. Daytime highs on Tuesday should reach the upper 50`s
to upper 60`s.

Aloft, the aforementioned ridge axis should shift E`ward from the
eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley to near the Canadian
Maritimes and Bermuda between daybreak Wednesday morning and sunset
Thursday evening. Simultaneously, the aforementioned vertically-
stacked low at the surface and aloft should wobble ESE`ward from the
Upper MS Valley to the Upper OH Valley as the attendant surface
trough continues to affect our region. Northern OH and NW PA should
remain within the relatively-cold sector at the surface. Additional
periods of rain are expected as the low pressure system`s warm
conveyor belt continues to undergo moist isentropic ascent aloft.
Weak diurnal destabilization of a sufficiently-moist boundary layer
should permit low-level convergence/resulting ascent associated with
the low`s cyclonic circulation to trigger additional rain showers
during the late morning through afternoon hours of Wednesday and
Thursday, respectively. These lifting mechanisms may release
sufficient CAPE, especially elevated CAPE, to generate a few
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through the predawn hours of
Thursday morning. Daytime highs should reach the 60`s on Wednesday
and Thursday, respectively. Overnight lows should reach mainly the
upper 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will be in place this afternoon with
thunderstorms expected overnight. We are watching for a complex
of severe thunderstorms to develop in Southwest Lower Michigan
and northern Indiana overnight and approach TOL towards 03Z.
These storms are likely to continue east or southeast overnight,
impacting most Ohio terminals and possibly CLE and MFD between
06-08Z with ERI towards 8-10Z. Thunderstorms in Ohio will have
the potential for heavy rain with IFR conditions and may also
have strong winds of 40-50 knots or hail. We will need to refine
timing and peak wind gusts as we see which terminals are most
likely to be impacted. There is some potential for training of
storms which could prolong the period of heavy rain and IFR
conditions.

Most terminals will have south to southeast winds this afternoon
except northeast at ERI. Winds will shift to more southwesterly
this evening ahead of the thunderstorms and westerly behind them
into Friday morning. Southwesterly winds will develop again
during the day on Friday at 8-12 knots.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are
possible through early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly NE`erly to E`erly winds around 5 to 10 knots, augmented by a
lake breeze, and waves of 2 feet or less are expected through this
early evening as a very weak ridge persists over Lake Erie. The
ridge exits ENE`ward tonight as a warm front moves NE`ward across
Lake Erie. E`erly to SE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots ahead of the
front veer to S`erly to SW`erly behind the front. Waves of 3 feet or
less are expected. On Friday through Friday night, winds around 10
to nearly 20 knots are expected to vary between SE`erly and SW`erly
as multiple trough axes sweep E`ward across the lake. Waves should
remain 3 feet or less in U.S. waters.

On Saturday, SW`erly winds around 10 to nearly 20 knots veer to
W`erly and freshen to 15 to 25 knots as a cold front sweeps E`ward
across Lake Erie. Waves build to as large as 4 to 8 feet, especially
east of The Islands, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed. Behind the cold front, a trough lingers over Lake Erie
through Sunday. WSW`erly to NW`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots and
waves as large as 4 to 8 feet Saturday night should be followed by
mainly W`erly to N`erly winds easing to around 10 to 15 knots on
Sunday. Accordingly, waves should subside to 3 feet or less by
nightfall Sunday evening. NW`erly to NE`erly winds around 5 to 15
knots Sunday night through Monday should become mainly N`erly to
NE`erly Monday night through Tuesday as a ridge builds slowly from
the west. Waves should be mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4
footers are possible.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Jaszka